Tim Tebow and Peyton Manning

Tim Tebow is now a member of the New York Football Jets

Peyton Manning is now a member of the Denver Broncos

Sean Payton is suspended for a year, a pretty harsh penalty for the bounty scandal.

Superbowl

What a tough pill to swallow.  The Superbowl was a great show.  As predicted the under came in, with a lot of room to spare, and the line actually went down to 53 at kickoff.  Unfortunately, the New York Football Giants were crowned champions once again.  Eli Manning led a late 4th quarter drive and ended up scoring with 57 seconds remaining on the clock.  They timed this perfectly, and 57 seconds was just not enough time for Brady & Co. to score. 

Madonna's halftime performance was well-received by the women that I watched the game with, and I honestly did not pay attention to the ads, which were fairly star-studded.  The Giants sacked Brady right at the beginning causing a safety, which is extremely rare, and I am sure hurt the Nevada and offshore sportsbooks, who offer odds in the range of 9 to 1. 

I would have written a lot more if the Patriots won, but I am still feeling kind of sick from the 12 beers and 20 wings I ate last night.  Congrats Giants.

Superbowl: Brady & Belichick Try for 4

I got my wish last weekend. Tom Brady and the Patriots eeked out a victory in Foxboro against the Baltimore Ravens and will represent the AFC in Superbowl XLVI. (why don't they just use 46???)  The game came down to a last minute drive by Flacco and the Ravens against Edelman & Co.'s porous defense.  Sterling Moore knocked a ball out of Baltimore WR Lee Evans in the end zone, setting the Ravens up for a tying 32 yard FG attempt for Billy Cundiff.  What should have been a chip shot shanked left and Patriots nation erupted.  Although the result was as desired, the performance gave fans a feeling of unease, but all we have is one more game.

In the evening game, the red-hot NY Giants snatched victory and a berth in Indianapolis with an overtime Lawrence Tynes FG.  Eli played well and the Giants D made life miserable for Alex Smith.  2 special teams gaffes by Kyle Williams may have cost the game for the 49ers.

This sets up a rematch of 2007-2008's Superbowl 42, which haunts me to this day.  I remember watching this game in my college dorm, surrounded by a bunch of roomates who happened to be Giants fans.  The celebration for that rediculous play by Eli & Tyree will forever live in infamy.  Now that I live in Connecticut, I am surrounded by Giants fans, which is annoying to say the least.  I just hope that the favored New England Patriots can take care of business and get that ring.

I mentioned New England is favored, and the line opened at NE -3.5, which I hopped on immediately since its over the key number of 3.  I truly think the Pats win by 3, as seen in their last 3 Superbowl victories.  The one they lost also happened to land on the number 3.  This is no big surprise since 3 is the most common result in football, and probably even higher in close fought NFL Championship and Playoff games.  This means its incredibly important to be on the right side of the number.  I will definitely hedge this bet depending how far the line drops come Feb 5th, I will take NE outright or at -2, but I wanted to lock something up with NYG +3.5.  The over/under is 55.5, and I love the under.  Look at all Patriots Superbowls, and that scary Giants pass rush, means that the totals will be closer to NE v. BAL than NE v DEN.  More analysis coming as the game gets closer.

AFC Conference Championships: Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

I have been missing for quite awhile.  Last post was the day before New Years Eve.  I had a great time visiting with my wife's sister and brother in law.  We spent a great extended weekend in New York City.  Visited New Haven and Boston twice.  We drank a lot of great beers, the new Sierra Nevada Ruthless Rye is excellent.  We took an informal tour at New England Brewing in New Haven, and I picked up 2 four packs of their 668: Neighbor of the Beast.  We also visited Berkshire Brewing in South Deerfield, MA.  The tour was great, the tour guide was funny and informative, and I sampled both the Imperial Stout and their "Goodbye Irene" beer brewed to help support the local community that was ravaged by the early October storm.  Through all this we watched the NBA season get into swing, and my Celtics, are performing far below expectations.  More on that later.  In the NFL, the Patriots have been rolling and with the Saints and Packers eliminated, the two best teams in the NFL are gone from the playoff "tournament."

The AFC conference championship pits the #2 seed Baltimore Ravens in Foxboro against my #1 seed New England Patriots.  The betting line is Patriots -7, which I think is a bit high, considering the Ravens impressive defense, Ray Rice, and the Patriots defense more full of holes than swiss cheese.  I think the line is elevated by the Patriots destruction of Timothy Tebow.  I think the game will be pretty great and I really hope that Tom Brady and the three headed monster of Gronkowski, Hernandez and Welker will be too much for Baltimore to overcome. The game is at 3pm and if things go well for the Pats they will be in Indy in 2 weeks!

The other game is the red hot New York Giants against the impressive San Francisco 49ers.  No one expected this to be the matchup in the NFC, with the Saints and Packers representing probably 80% of football fans #1 most likely Super Bowl victors.  Hoping for a Giants v Patriots Super Bowl rematch, but I think the 49ers will roll and they are favored by 2.5, and I think theres some value on the Niners at home.

11/6/2011 Giants v Patriots

Yesterday was a pretty intense day of football, Miami stunned the red hot Chiefs and halted their 4 game win streak.  Tim Tebow once again made miracles and defeated the Raiders.  The reigning Super Bowl Champ Packers hold off the Chargers who nearly were able to recover from two pick-6s in the first half.  The Sunday Night game came down to the last play, with Flacco connecting to Torrey Smith for a last second TD and a win for the slumping Ravens. 

2008 Super Bowl catch by Tyree

This brings me to my big game of the week, my New England Patriots against the New York Giants.  In a repeat of the traumatic 2008 Super Bowl, the Patriots were nearly double digit point favorites against NY's hometown team.  Injuries to the Giants top RB and WR, Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks respectively, made for a pretty fortunate matchup against the Patriots who had not lost at home in years and were coming of a heartbreaking loss in Pittsburgh.  I did not think the Pats would cover, but I would have wagered at 4:1 that the Patriots would get a W. 

Unfortunately, that was not to be for my Patriots.  The first half was scoreless, ending with Gostowski missing a makeable field goal.  I can understand missing a 40+ footer, but come on bro!  Both defenses were playing pretty well, but everyone knew there would be some scoring in the second half.  The Pats looked good, until the last drive of the game, where Eli connected with a receiver for an insane pass for a big game keeping their hopes alive.  The Pats were up 3 with a 3rd and goal on the 2 yard line and just needed a stop, but a play action pass for the Giants resulted in a short TD and the ultimate win.  Very dissapointing, although a ton of fun and drama for spectators to enjoy!

DraftDay.com Review

DraftDay.com is a new fantasy sports site operated by the guys from CardRunners.com which I was a member of prior to Black Friday.  The site allows you to compete in tournament style fantasy sports but rather than over a course of the season, these are one week tournaments.  They run sort of like poker tournaments, with a buyin and prizes based on total scores.  This allows large prize pools, with a small investment, financially and timewise.  Players can easily transfer funds through paypal, credit cards, or paper checks.  The site makes money by taking a portion of the total prize pool as rake.  All player money is held in segregated accounts and the site is fully legal under the UIGEA.

There is a salary cap, set by the site, and a salary for each player.  You pick 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, & 1 D/ST for football.  Points are scored in a standard fashion, and your overall score is your score for the tournament.  There are also MLB tournaments available and NHL and NBA will be available during the season.

The software seems pretty smooth and user friendly.  Also, check out the "Perfect Lineup" promotion, which could potentially net a lucky man $1 million.

Sign up is simple and there is a freeroll tournament with $100 in prizes offered.  I assume structures will be good and fair, since this is run by smart poker players, who understand what is needed to keep people playing.  Large fields as well as headsup and private tournaments allow for a variety of exciting ways to play.

Sign up here.

Hedging: Monday Night Football

Hedging is a concept that is often used in finance, but applies to sports betting or "sports investing" as well, and presents a profitable strategy to decrease risk or create arbitrage opportunities.

Example #1:

The most basic hedge assumes lines have not chagned and you decide you do not like your position, so you simply bet the other side.  You will pay the juice, but there is no longer any risk/reward.





Example #2:

This hedge assumes that lines have not changed and you still did not like your position.  However you did not completely hate the side, and wanted to keep some exposure.  By betting half (or any other percentage) of the other side hedges you against part of the potential win/loss but still leaves some room for profits.



Example #3:

The real hedging opportunities come become available when lines change.  For example you get the Packers on one side of a key number, then the line moves to the other side.  You can hedge by betting the other side, which means if the final score ends on the key number the line moved over (which many times it will, since this is how the game was handicapped and it is a key number) you can win both sides of your bet and have a maximum of just the juice to pay.









You could also decide to hedge only half of your bet and still have a profitable middle opportunity.





Example #4:

Sometimes through other books or a change in factors you can get both sides of a bet at either no or positive juice, which is a situation known as arbitrage.  If you can get these types of situations, you have to take them, because you are making risk free money. 

I was able to create a profitable strategy for myself for Monday Night's Detroit/Chicago game, where I previously went long the Detroit Lions at -5.5.  You can see the spreadsheet here or a wrap-up based on results tomorrow.

Week 5 NFL

Week 5 of the NFL is upon us, this is the first week of byes, so there will be fewer games.  My fantasy team is doing fairly well at 3-1 and with a favorable matchup this week (my opponent has several key players on bye/injured) and I hope to improve to 4-1.  I have been doing fairly poor overall in NFL betting, but I still am confident.  I am down a fairly large % of my original bankroll, so I have decided to vary my bet sizes depending on the play.  I will mention some of my key bets this week, and I apologize if lines have moved since I bet them.  See the spreadsheet here.

 Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 1/2

I would probably not have made this pick before the season, but I think its a great matchup for Tennessee.  Pittsburgh is banged up, and Big Ben will probably not play the whole game, and Rashard Mendenhall might not take a snap.  Tennessee has looked great, both offensively and defensively, while Pittsburgh has struggled severely.  I could see Pittsburgh winning, but I think there is value taking the Titans at over a field goal. I probably missed a little value since this opened at 5 and had been bet down to 3 (with reduced juice).  I dont think this will be a shoot out either, and took the under on 40 pts.

Atlanta -6 vs. Green Bay

I obviously can tell that Green Bay has been amazing this year and Atlanta has been lackluster.  However I think theres value here.  Green Bay probably should be favored by a FG, but the recent performance has skewed public perception.  This game is in Atlanta where the Falcons have notoriously been great.  After the near loss to Seattle, I think Atlanta will be looking to make a statement here.  I am worried this will be an extremely high scoring game and I get punished.  This opened at 5, so I am glad I got it at 6 with standard juice.

New York Jets +9.5 @ New England

I hate betting against my high scoring Patriots, and this line may actually be covered.  I hate betting on teams to cover double digits in the NFL, especially teams with pathetic defense like the Pats.  I think the Jets will be up for this game, since they may need to make a statement too.  I think the Pats ultimately take it by a TD.  People are overreacting to the ugly Sunday night game last week.  I am seeing this for +9 at many places, so I got the extra half point value again.

My other plays are Detroit -5.5 v. Chi Bears, SD Chargers -4 v. Denver, Minny -1.5 v Arizona,  Cinci +1.5 Jacksonville.   I also cashed a ticket on the NYY, and hope to double down on Thursday.  I bet the Cal Golden Bears +24 v. Oregon Ducks as well.

Monday Night Football + Bonus MLB pick

Google Docs Spreadsheet: 2011 NFL Plays

I am down a little overall this season in NFL bets, but I still feel confident in my picking, although this past weekend, I regret my Jets pick, and considered taking the other side, and just paying the juice.  I am somewhat steamed, but I am going to go ahead and take the Washington Redskins tonight at +3.5 (with a little extra juice) rather than +3 at the lower juice, because I truly believe Washington is better than Dallas (with injuries) and a lot of people are going to be playing the chalk on the favorite tonight.

Also, I am a Boston guy, and have obviously been lamenting the Red Sox's September.  I think they will beat the Orioles tonight, and if they don't I assume their season is done.  I am paying a pretty high juice at -185, but I think they win this game 4 out of 5 times. 

Patriots Week 3: Disappointing Loss to the Bills

 

Final 2 minutes were a slow and painful end to the worst Tom Brady game (statswise) in recent memory

Bills covered though

NFL Week 3 Plays

This week there are some decent betting opportunities, but I have also decided to play a couple of unders.  Overs were huge in the first two weeks, and I believe the sportsbooks/market will overcompensate for this and set the line a little high, and I decided to pick a couple games that I think could go under.  I am still a little tight about the MNF game that I added an under 44 pick, because due to a couple freak plays, I ended up pushing, but thats the game.  Lets get into the picks.

Buffalo Bills +9.5 NE Patriots

The Bills have been pretty strong, and although the Patriots have looked incredible, I expect a small recession at some point, this game is in Buffalo as well, so 9.5 seems high.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 NY Giants

I am not a believer in the Giants, especially with Eli playing as he has, and the WRs all dinged up.  I do not know if Michael Vick is playing, but their backup looked pretty good, and they still have a good defense, I kind of like the under in this game, now that I think about it.

NO Saints -4 Houston Texans

I made this play early in the week, but I think I am regretting it, as the Texans are looking hot.  However, I have some faith in the Saints and Brees, and hope they will take this down.  My least favorite bet of the week.

NY Jets -3.5 Oakland Raiders

I think Rex Ryan and the Jets should take care of the Raiders, whose offense is going to struggle against the usually strong Jets defense, I also predict this will be a low scoring affair.

Houston Texans/NO Saints under 53.5

Not a ton of value in this pick, since both teams have strong offense, but I figure the public will be on the over, and I want to be contrarian here.

Miami Dolphins Cleveland Browns over 41

Chad Henne has looked pretty good, and I expect big numbers again in this game.  The number seems too low, but I wont be surprised if this game ends up as a 20-17 win for the Browns.

Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Bucs under 46

I expect Tampa Bay to win this game and it to be fairly close.  I think both teams will run the ball a lot, with Lagarette Blount having a big game. 

NFL Week 2 Plays

I watched the beginning of the Bears/Saints game, before it got out of hand, and then a number of the other games. During the 4pm window, I watched a great performance by Tom Brady and the Patriots. Finally, I was engrossed by the Sunday Night Football matchup of the Falcons vs. Eagles. Looking to do better than my NFL Week 1 performance.

The big injury of the week was devastating to my fantasy football team. Jamaal Charles is down and out for the season, and this pretty much puts the nail in the coffin for the Kansas City Chiefs, who were completely stomped by Detroit. I will probably avoid betting on/against the Chiefs for the rest of the year, because man they are BAD, and now have major injuries on both sides of the ball. Conversely, Detroit has been the sweetheart of the public, but they are the Lions, come on. I will still be going against them, depending on matchups/price.

Chicago Bears +8 v New Orleans Saints: LOSS
I was really impressed by the Bears effort in week 1, and was expecting their defense to come up big again this week, but it was not the case. Cutler and Forte were very effective in the early going, but Breesus Christ and the Saints were just too much for them. I got this +8 number very early in the week, and it closed at 6.5 or 7, so I think there was value. The Saints are just good.

Tampa Bay Bucs +3 Minnesota Vikings: WIN
Josh Freeman and his Tampa boys lost in game 1 to the Lions, and I figured they would come out firing this game. I am a big fan of this team, and consider them underrated. Also, I am not a believer in the Minnesota, although no one can deny Peterson's skills in RB, and with Mcnabb in QB, will be seeing plenty of action again this year. Tampa Bay won this game outright, and I am pleased with my pick here, straight value play.

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 Denver Broncos: WINI feel a little lucky about this pick, but I mostly just went with it because the Bengals were coming off a week one win, where they surprised a lot of us, and Denver looked bad in their season opener, which happened to be a 10:30 pm Monday night game, so I figured the Bengals would be a little more fresh and confident. They wound up losing a close game, and I covered.

Seattle Seahawks +15 Pittsburgh Steelers: LOSS

This was my own fault, the number of +15 looked too good, and I should have considered the Steelers would set out to make a point after losing to Baltimore in week one. (who I figured would have a better game, and like in week 3) This was a blowout, and I will probably avoid games like this in the future, or maybe bet a half unit instead of a whole.

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 Philly Eagles: WIN

The public loves Philly, but I could not get on board with them being a favorite in Atlanta. Matty Ice is a pretty good QB, especially at home. Julio Jones made an insane late game catch. I think I got a pretty good number, as the smart money brought this down closer to a point at game time, but that's why I get my bets in early in the week! Who knows if I win if Vick stays in the game though, Philly may be the real deal!


Week Two total: +$8.18

Overall: -$2.49

Feel free to check out the above spreadsheet, at any time on Google Docs, I update my plays when I lock them in.


EDIT: Monday Night - I decided to take a flyer on the NYG under, will update the results after!

NFL Week 1

Football is back! Watching pre-season is a joke compared to the real deal that is NFL football. I had my fantasy draft just before the incredibly exciting first game between the defending champs Green Bay and the New Orleans Saints. Sunday was excellent starting with the early games all the way until the exciting last seconds of the Cowboys and Jets. Monday involved record breaking with Brady and the Patriots' offense destroying Miami, and my kicker, Jankowski, kicking a 63 yard FG in Denver

I have decided to make 4 or 5 plays per week to bet on, totals and spread bets only. I will maintain a spreadsheet and see how my $ would fair at the end of the season. I have added a copy of it to Google Docs and it will be available here.

Game 1: New Orleans Saints +4.5 v. Green Bay Packers LOSS

First game of the season was a loss, never a good sign. I took the New Orleans Saints at +4.5, which I thought was pretty decent value. GB started scoring hard early, and the fumble by New Orleans put my bet in limbo very quickly. I probably should have played the over on the points, looking back on it, something to consider in the future. Drew Brees (my fantasy QB) is always a threat, and he put up an impressive performance, especially fantasy-wise. There was even a final second play for them to tie the game, but they could not convert. Aaron Rodgers looks amazing, will definitely consider this performance in future weeks.


Game 2: Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5 over Detroit Lions  LOSS

The Detroit Lions have received a lot of hype due to improved play by Matthew Stafford, who promises a great season if able to avoid injury. Also their fearsome defense is expected to really trouble passers and RBs. I do believe in the Lions, but I expected TB to overcome this, especially since it was the first game. I thought I was getting good value, due to the bandwagoners, and actually favored TB by a FG, so 1.5 was great value. Blounte was unimpressive in RB and Freeman was supbar. I will reconsider my views on the Lions, but will probably bet against them in weeks 2/3 depending on matchups, since the public will be riding them.


Game 3: Buffalo Bills +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs  WIN
My boy Jamaal Charles (fantasy link) and Matt Cassel just could not get it going against the lowly Bills. The line was +7 for the Bills and they ended up winning by 34. I think KC overperformed last year and will not repeat that, but did not expect this big of a blowout at home. This was probably an outlier for both teams, and will probably parlay this with the Bills against the Lions this coming weekend.


Game 4: New York Jets -4 over Dallas Cowboys  LOSS

This is always the worst, when the team you have wins, but does not cover. I really should have won this bet, I don't know what happened to the Jets backfield, Romo played great in the beginning. I expected more bone-head moves, like were made at the end of the game, and with Dez Bryant limping, this should have gone my favor. Exciting game to watch though.


Game 5: New England Patriots -7 over Miami Dolphins  WIN

An excellent game for me to watch as a Patriots fan, although I do not usually like to play New England, especially as a TD+ favorite, because it is annoying to sweat the bet and the game.  Chad Henne actually looked pretty good, and if the Dolphins defense was better prepared for the hurry up offense of Tom Brady, things could have gone differently.  Patriots defense is looking underwhelming, especially the safeties.

Other Notes:

Cam Newton was really impressive, best fantasy performance of Sunday, although it was a loss for the Panthers. I do like the Panthers this year, but this performance will diminish some of their value.
Mike Vick and the Eagles may be the real deal too, definitely revising my Rams rankings after what I think is a costly loss of Danny Amendola and. Still leaning against the Eagles early in the season.
The Washington Redskins outplayed Eli's Giants, I considered taking the Skins, and should have gone with my gut.

Even though Atlanta was blown out by da Bears, I still like them at home, and think there will be value on them in the next few games. I like the over in their game against the Eagles this weekend.

I ended up losing $10.68, but I feel good about my plays in the first week, and hope to improve next week, you can check my NFL Plays doc for up to date plays, if you can't wait for next week's post.