Week 5 NFL
Week 5 of the NFL is upon us, this is the first week of byes, so there will be fewer games. My fantasy team is doing fairly well at 3-1 and with a favorable matchup this week (my opponent has several key players on bye/injured) and I hope to improve to 4-1. I have been doing fairly poor overall in NFL betting, but I still am confident. I am down a fairly large % of my original bankroll, so I have decided to vary my bet sizes depending on the play. I will mention some of my key bets this week, and I apologize if lines have moved since I bet them. See the spreadsheet here.
Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 1/2
I would probably not have made this pick before the season, but I think its a great matchup for Tennessee. Pittsburgh is banged up, and Big Ben will probably not play the whole game, and Rashard Mendenhall might not take a snap. Tennessee has looked great, both offensively and defensively, while Pittsburgh has struggled severely. I could see Pittsburgh winning, but I think there is value taking the Titans at over a field goal. I probably missed a little value since this opened at 5 and had been bet down to 3 (with reduced juice). I dont think this will be a shoot out either, and took the under on 40 pts.
Atlanta -6 vs. Green Bay
I obviously can tell that Green Bay has been amazing this year and Atlanta has been lackluster. However I think theres value here. Green Bay probably should be favored by a FG, but the recent performance has skewed public perception. This game is in Atlanta where the Falcons have notoriously been great. After the near loss to Seattle, I think Atlanta will be looking to make a statement here. I am worried this will be an extremely high scoring game and I get punished. This opened at 5, so I am glad I got it at 6 with standard juice.
New York Jets +9.5 @ New England
I hate betting against my high scoring Patriots, and this line may actually be covered. I hate betting on teams to cover double digits in the NFL, especially teams with pathetic defense like the Pats. I think the Jets will be up for this game, since they may need to make a statement too. I think the Pats ultimately take it by a TD. People are overreacting to the ugly Sunday night game last week. I am seeing this for +9 at many places, so I got the extra half point value again.
My other plays are Detroit -5.5 v. Chi Bears, SD Chargers -4 v. Denver, Minny -1.5 v Arizona, Cinci +1.5 Jacksonville. I also cashed a ticket on the NYY, and hope to double down on Thursday. I bet the Cal Golden Bears +24 v. Oregon Ducks as well.