Superbowl: Brady & Belichick Try for 4
I got my wish last weekend. Tom Brady and the Patriots eeked out a victory in Foxboro against the Baltimore Ravens and will represent the AFC in Superbowl XLVI. (why don't they just use 46???) The game came down to a last minute drive by Flacco and the Ravens against Edelman & Co.'s porous defense. Sterling Moore knocked a ball out of Baltimore WR Lee Evans in the end zone, setting the Ravens up for a tying 32 yard FG attempt for Billy Cundiff. What should have been a chip shot shanked left and Patriots nation erupted. Although the result was as desired, the performance gave fans a feeling of unease, but all we have is one more game.
In the evening game, the red-hot NY Giants snatched victory and a berth in Indianapolis with an overtime Lawrence Tynes FG. Eli played well and the Giants D made life miserable for Alex Smith. 2 special teams gaffes by Kyle Williams may have cost the game for the 49ers.
This sets up a rematch of 2007-2008's Superbowl 42, which haunts me to this day. I remember watching this game in my college dorm, surrounded by a bunch of roomates who happened to be Giants fans. The celebration for that rediculous play by Eli & Tyree will forever live in infamy. Now that I live in Connecticut, I am surrounded by Giants fans, which is annoying to say the least. I just hope that the favored New England Patriots can take care of business and get that ring.
I mentioned New England is favored, and the line opened at NE -3.5, which I hopped on immediately since its over the key number of 3. I truly think the Pats win by 3, as seen in their last 3 Superbowl victories. The one they lost also happened to land on the number 3. This is no big surprise since 3 is the most common result in football, and probably even higher in close fought NFL Championship and Playoff games. This means its incredibly important to be on the right side of the number. I will definitely hedge this bet depending how far the line drops come Feb 5th, I will take NE outright or at -2, but I wanted to lock something up with NYG +3.5. The over/under is 55.5, and I love the under. Look at all Patriots Superbowls, and that scary Giants pass rush, means that the totals will be closer to NE v. BAL than NE v DEN. More analysis coming as the game gets closer.