NFL Week 1

Football is back! Watching pre-season is a joke compared to the real deal that is NFL football. I had my fantasy draft just before the incredibly exciting first game between the defending champs Green Bay and the New Orleans Saints. Sunday was excellent starting with the early games all the way until the exciting last seconds of the Cowboys and Jets. Monday involved record breaking with Brady and the Patriots' offense destroying Miami, and my kicker, Jankowski, kicking a 63 yard FG in Denver

I have decided to make 4 or 5 plays per week to bet on, totals and spread bets only. I will maintain a spreadsheet and see how my $ would fair at the end of the season. I have added a copy of it to Google Docs and it will be available here.

Game 1: New Orleans Saints +4.5 v. Green Bay Packers LOSS

First game of the season was a loss, never a good sign. I took the New Orleans Saints at +4.5, which I thought was pretty decent value. GB started scoring hard early, and the fumble by New Orleans put my bet in limbo very quickly. I probably should have played the over on the points, looking back on it, something to consider in the future. Drew Brees (my fantasy QB) is always a threat, and he put up an impressive performance, especially fantasy-wise. There was even a final second play for them to tie the game, but they could not convert. Aaron Rodgers looks amazing, will definitely consider this performance in future weeks.

Game 2: Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5 over Detroit Lions  LOSS

The Detroit Lions have received a lot of hype due to improved play by Matthew Stafford, who promises a great season if able to avoid injury. Also their fearsome defense is expected to really trouble passers and RBs. I do believe in the Lions, but I expected TB to overcome this, especially since it was the first game. I thought I was getting good value, due to the bandwagoners, and actually favored TB by a FG, so 1.5 was great value. Blounte was unimpressive in RB and Freeman was supbar. I will reconsider my views on the Lions, but will probably bet against them in weeks 2/3 depending on matchups, since the public will be riding them.

Game 3: Buffalo Bills +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs  WIN
My boy Jamaal Charles (fantasy link) and Matt Cassel just could not get it going against the lowly Bills. The line was +7 for the Bills and they ended up winning by 34. I think KC overperformed last year and will not repeat that, but did not expect this big of a blowout at home. This was probably an outlier for both teams, and will probably parlay this with the Bills against the Lions this coming weekend.

Game 4: New York Jets -4 over Dallas Cowboys  LOSS

This is always the worst, when the team you have wins, but does not cover. I really should have won this bet, I don't know what happened to the Jets backfield, Romo played great in the beginning. I expected more bone-head moves, like were made at the end of the game, and with Dez Bryant limping, this should have gone my favor. Exciting game to watch though.

Game 5: New England Patriots -7 over Miami Dolphins  WIN

An excellent game for me to watch as a Patriots fan, although I do not usually like to play New England, especially as a TD+ favorite, because it is annoying to sweat the bet and the game.  Chad Henne actually looked pretty good, and if the Dolphins defense was better prepared for the hurry up offense of Tom Brady, things could have gone differently.  Patriots defense is looking underwhelming, especially the safeties.

Other Notes:

Cam Newton was really impressive, best fantasy performance of Sunday, although it was a loss for the Panthers. I do like the Panthers this year, but this performance will diminish some of their value.
Mike Vick and the Eagles may be the real deal too, definitely revising my Rams rankings after what I think is a costly loss of Danny Amendola and. Still leaning against the Eagles early in the season.
The Washington Redskins outplayed Eli's Giants, I considered taking the Skins, and should have gone with my gut.

Even though Atlanta was blown out by da Bears, I still like them at home, and think there will be value on them in the next few games. I like the over in their game against the Eagles this weekend.

I ended up losing $10.68, but I feel good about my plays in the first week, and hope to improve next week, you can check my NFL Plays doc for up to date plays, if you can't wait for next week's post.

No comments: