Superbowl...

The Patriots v. Giants Superbowl is just a few days away.  I am extremely excited for the game, and the only concern I have is regarding the health of Rob Gronkowski's ankle.  If that's alright, then I the Giants parade will come to an end. 

Celtics began to pick up some speed, beating the Orlando Magic twice, and sending their season into a tailspin.  Then they were able to win in an upset at home against the Indiana Pacers who are looking strong.  However, #1 pick Kyrie Irving and the Cleveland Caveliers were 11 points behind with 4 minutes to go.  The Celtics were not able to score a single point, and Kyrie scored a basket on a botched pick and roll defense play by Avery Bradley with 2.6 seconds to go, and won the game by 1.  The Celtics play Cleveland again tonight, and hopefully are able to enact some revenge.

I have been drinking some great beer lately as well.  Sierra Nevada's new spring seasonal, the Ruthless Rye IPA is a hit.  I love buying the Sierra Nevada 12 packs, and having a nice hoppy beer available all the time for the bargain price of $1.08/beer.  Another great beer I tried this weekend was Stone Brewing's collaboration with Vermont brewpub-turned-cannery The Alchemist and Ninkasi of the Pacific Northwest.  It is called "More Brown than Black IPA" and is filled to the brim with hops, but the dark malts offset this a little bit, really a great beer all around.

I have been dealing with a virus/flu of some sort that's left me quite congested.  I think that I am coming out on the right side and am going to hit the gym tonight.  Cheers!

Bobby Valentine = Boston Red Sox New Manager

I am pretty horrified with how the Red Sox performed this past year.  Francona had gotten even softer, and nobody took him seriously.  I think that with Valentine, the Red Sox will be much improved.  I don't even care if we keep Big Papi, fuck that guy. Fuck Papelbon too.  We have a ton of talent and I am extremely excited for 2012 baseball season.

god damn, this "Rappin Duke" video is hilarious too

Week 5 NFL

Week 5 of the NFL is upon us, this is the first week of byes, so there will be fewer games.  My fantasy team is doing fairly well at 3-1 and with a favorable matchup this week (my opponent has several key players on bye/injured) and I hope to improve to 4-1.  I have been doing fairly poor overall in NFL betting, but I still am confident.  I am down a fairly large % of my original bankroll, so I have decided to vary my bet sizes depending on the play.  I will mention some of my key bets this week, and I apologize if lines have moved since I bet them.  See the spreadsheet here.

 Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 1/2

I would probably not have made this pick before the season, but I think its a great matchup for Tennessee.  Pittsburgh is banged up, and Big Ben will probably not play the whole game, and Rashard Mendenhall might not take a snap.  Tennessee has looked great, both offensively and defensively, while Pittsburgh has struggled severely.  I could see Pittsburgh winning, but I think there is value taking the Titans at over a field goal. I probably missed a little value since this opened at 5 and had been bet down to 3 (with reduced juice).  I dont think this will be a shoot out either, and took the under on 40 pts.

Atlanta -6 vs. Green Bay

I obviously can tell that Green Bay has been amazing this year and Atlanta has been lackluster.  However I think theres value here.  Green Bay probably should be favored by a FG, but the recent performance has skewed public perception.  This game is in Atlanta where the Falcons have notoriously been great.  After the near loss to Seattle, I think Atlanta will be looking to make a statement here.  I am worried this will be an extremely high scoring game and I get punished.  This opened at 5, so I am glad I got it at 6 with standard juice.

New York Jets +9.5 @ New England

I hate betting against my high scoring Patriots, and this line may actually be covered.  I hate betting on teams to cover double digits in the NFL, especially teams with pathetic defense like the Pats.  I think the Jets will be up for this game, since they may need to make a statement too.  I think the Pats ultimately take it by a TD.  People are overreacting to the ugly Sunday night game last week.  I am seeing this for +9 at many places, so I got the extra half point value again.

My other plays are Detroit -5.5 v. Chi Bears, SD Chargers -4 v. Denver, Minny -1.5 v Arizona,  Cinci +1.5 Jacksonville.   I also cashed a ticket on the NYY, and hope to double down on Thursday.  I bet the Cal Golden Bears +24 v. Oregon Ducks as well.

NFL Week 2 Plays

I watched the beginning of the Bears/Saints game, before it got out of hand, and then a number of the other games. During the 4pm window, I watched a great performance by Tom Brady and the Patriots. Finally, I was engrossed by the Sunday Night Football matchup of the Falcons vs. Eagles. Looking to do better than my NFL Week 1 performance.

The big injury of the week was devastating to my fantasy football team. Jamaal Charles is down and out for the season, and this pretty much puts the nail in the coffin for the Kansas City Chiefs, who were completely stomped by Detroit. I will probably avoid betting on/against the Chiefs for the rest of the year, because man they are BAD, and now have major injuries on both sides of the ball. Conversely, Detroit has been the sweetheart of the public, but they are the Lions, come on. I will still be going against them, depending on matchups/price.

Chicago Bears +8 v New Orleans Saints: LOSS
I was really impressed by the Bears effort in week 1, and was expecting their defense to come up big again this week, but it was not the case. Cutler and Forte were very effective in the early going, but Breesus Christ and the Saints were just too much for them. I got this +8 number very early in the week, and it closed at 6.5 or 7, so I think there was value. The Saints are just good.

Tampa Bay Bucs +3 Minnesota Vikings: WIN
Josh Freeman and his Tampa boys lost in game 1 to the Lions, and I figured they would come out firing this game. I am a big fan of this team, and consider them underrated. Also, I am not a believer in the Minnesota, although no one can deny Peterson's skills in RB, and with Mcnabb in QB, will be seeing plenty of action again this year. Tampa Bay won this game outright, and I am pleased with my pick here, straight value play.

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 Denver Broncos: WINI feel a little lucky about this pick, but I mostly just went with it because the Bengals were coming off a week one win, where they surprised a lot of us, and Denver looked bad in their season opener, which happened to be a 10:30 pm Monday night game, so I figured the Bengals would be a little more fresh and confident. They wound up losing a close game, and I covered.

Seattle Seahawks +15 Pittsburgh Steelers: LOSS

This was my own fault, the number of +15 looked too good, and I should have considered the Steelers would set out to make a point after losing to Baltimore in week one. (who I figured would have a better game, and like in week 3) This was a blowout, and I will probably avoid games like this in the future, or maybe bet a half unit instead of a whole.

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 Philly Eagles: WIN

The public loves Philly, but I could not get on board with them being a favorite in Atlanta. Matty Ice is a pretty good QB, especially at home. Julio Jones made an insane late game catch. I think I got a pretty good number, as the smart money brought this down closer to a point at game time, but that's why I get my bets in early in the week! Who knows if I win if Vick stays in the game though, Philly may be the real deal!


Week Two total: +$8.18

Overall: -$2.49

Feel free to check out the above spreadsheet, at any time on Google Docs, I update my plays when I lock them in.


EDIT: Monday Night - I decided to take a flyer on the NYG under, will update the results after!

NFL Week 1

Football is back! Watching pre-season is a joke compared to the real deal that is NFL football. I had my fantasy draft just before the incredibly exciting first game between the defending champs Green Bay and the New Orleans Saints. Sunday was excellent starting with the early games all the way until the exciting last seconds of the Cowboys and Jets. Monday involved record breaking with Brady and the Patriots' offense destroying Miami, and my kicker, Jankowski, kicking a 63 yard FG in Denver

I have decided to make 4 or 5 plays per week to bet on, totals and spread bets only. I will maintain a spreadsheet and see how my $ would fair at the end of the season. I have added a copy of it to Google Docs and it will be available here.

Game 1: New Orleans Saints +4.5 v. Green Bay Packers LOSS

First game of the season was a loss, never a good sign. I took the New Orleans Saints at +4.5, which I thought was pretty decent value. GB started scoring hard early, and the fumble by New Orleans put my bet in limbo very quickly. I probably should have played the over on the points, looking back on it, something to consider in the future. Drew Brees (my fantasy QB) is always a threat, and he put up an impressive performance, especially fantasy-wise. There was even a final second play for them to tie the game, but they could not convert. Aaron Rodgers looks amazing, will definitely consider this performance in future weeks.


Game 2: Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5 over Detroit Lions  LOSS

The Detroit Lions have received a lot of hype due to improved play by Matthew Stafford, who promises a great season if able to avoid injury. Also their fearsome defense is expected to really trouble passers and RBs. I do believe in the Lions, but I expected TB to overcome this, especially since it was the first game. I thought I was getting good value, due to the bandwagoners, and actually favored TB by a FG, so 1.5 was great value. Blounte was unimpressive in RB and Freeman was supbar. I will reconsider my views on the Lions, but will probably bet against them in weeks 2/3 depending on matchups, since the public will be riding them.


Game 3: Buffalo Bills +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs  WIN
My boy Jamaal Charles (fantasy link) and Matt Cassel just could not get it going against the lowly Bills. The line was +7 for the Bills and they ended up winning by 34. I think KC overperformed last year and will not repeat that, but did not expect this big of a blowout at home. This was probably an outlier for both teams, and will probably parlay this with the Bills against the Lions this coming weekend.


Game 4: New York Jets -4 over Dallas Cowboys  LOSS

This is always the worst, when the team you have wins, but does not cover. I really should have won this bet, I don't know what happened to the Jets backfield, Romo played great in the beginning. I expected more bone-head moves, like were made at the end of the game, and with Dez Bryant limping, this should have gone my favor. Exciting game to watch though.


Game 5: New England Patriots -7 over Miami Dolphins  WIN

An excellent game for me to watch as a Patriots fan, although I do not usually like to play New England, especially as a TD+ favorite, because it is annoying to sweat the bet and the game.  Chad Henne actually looked pretty good, and if the Dolphins defense was better prepared for the hurry up offense of Tom Brady, things could have gone differently.  Patriots defense is looking underwhelming, especially the safeties.

Other Notes:

Cam Newton was really impressive, best fantasy performance of Sunday, although it was a loss for the Panthers. I do like the Panthers this year, but this performance will diminish some of their value.
Mike Vick and the Eagles may be the real deal too, definitely revising my Rams rankings after what I think is a costly loss of Danny Amendola and. Still leaning against the Eagles early in the season.
The Washington Redskins outplayed Eli's Giants, I considered taking the Skins, and should have gone with my gut.

Even though Atlanta was blown out by da Bears, I still like them at home, and think there will be value on them in the next few games. I like the over in their game against the Eagles this weekend.

I ended up losing $10.68, but I feel good about my plays in the first week, and hope to improve next week, you can check my NFL Plays doc for up to date plays, if you can't wait for next week's post.

My Fantasy Football League Draft

 

Last night was our league's fantasy football draft.  Yes, I know it was a bit last minute, but we wanted to make sure the league would be serious.  We are only doing a $20 buy-in, but it should be enought to keep things serious, and we can bump it up to $50 next year if things go well.  I was happy to get the 2nd pick, but I knew that would mean I would be in for long periods without being able to draft anyone, no bother. 

The league commissioner, managed to get first pick, and took Peterson, so I decided to go with Jamaal Charles, although I considered Ray Rice and Mike Vick (who ended up going 5th).  The only surprise of the first round was Aaron Rodgers went 3rd overall, but that was by @GoGreenMorimoto who is known for making unorthodox picks.  Corey's team was able to draft Andre Johnson 9th and Lasean McCoy 12th, which is pretty strong. 

I was able to grab Drew Brees in 19th, although I wouldn't have been upset with Philip Rivers who went 20th. @ComedyDogg foiled me by taking Larry Fitzgerald at 21, but it was alright, because I took Greg Jennings 23rd.  @MrRodgersBelt took Matt Ryan with the 26th pick, which I thought was extremely bizzare, since I had considered Matty Ice for a 12th round backup QB pick.  I wanted Matt Forte as my 2nd RB, but @Draze45 snatched him at 25th, so I settled for LaGarette Blount (we ended up making a trade, later)  Obviously, this was a speculative pick, but Draze was planning on picking him up in the next round anyways.  I took Mike Williams 42nd, which may have been a mistake, looking back on it. 

Since I wasn't in love with Williams, I decided to take Mario Manningham 59th, who I will probably use as my WR/RB flex guy, and could possibly be my second string receiver (I am expecting to have a big year, even as a 2nd option)  Then I took Shonn Greene 62nd, which I believe will be good value.  Matt Carle made a fairly speculative pick on Mark Ingram 68th, which is a bit aggressive/hopeful, but could pan out quite well. 

I took Fred Jackson 79th, which I still regret, but its more of a bet against CJ Spiller, who I underrate dramatically.  TE Zach Miller was taken 80th, so I decided to grab my TE, Jimmy Graham at this point, which turned out to be a good move, since I had him ranked 7th TE overall, and @Draze45 was planning to take him next (included in the trade)  I definitely think Jimmy will have a big year.

I was somewhat upset that Julio Jones was picked up 86th, since I planned to take him with my next pick.  Instead I took Joseph Addai, who will probably be relied on heavily, especially with Peyton Manning's season in question.  I know my next 3 picks would be seen as somewhat speculative, and probably have no problem making it through, so I grabbed Eli Manning, who is a solid backup QB, and with 2 great weapons (Nicks & Manningham) will throw for plenty of yards/TDs this year.  (People had already started drafting Kickers/Defenses at this point, LOL)

I was happy the I could grab Greg Olsen, who may be my starting TE, after the trade with Draze with pick 119.  I took Michael Crabtree and Danny Amendola, who could both have breakout style years, or be busts, I am fine with that.  With my final 2 picks I was plenty happy to get the Bears D/S/T and Oakland's Sebastien Janikowski, they will both do fine and I wouldn't want to waste earlier picks to get someone marginally better.  @ComedyDogg made a clown pick and took Mark Sanchez with the last pick, and he already had 2 QB's, but was just doing it for the laughs, since we were all ragging on him for taking Sanchez in the 6th round in his other draft.

Now, for the trade I mentioned.  I have Jamaal Charles as my 1st running back but I had my eye on Forte as a backup, since he gets a decent amount of catching yards in addition to his running, and I don't have a ton of faith in Cutler throwing the ball.  However, @Draze45 picked him up before I could get him, so I settled for Blount, who is unproven, but could definitely break out this year.  I was also pretty happy with my Jimmy Graham TE pick, but he's not a sure thing.  I was presented with a bogus trade offer that included Ochocinco, but responded back with a real offer, since I knew he was interested in Blount.  I offered Blount and Graham for Forte and Marcedes Lewis.  Many would rank Lewis above Graham and everyone considers Forte is more solid than Blounte, so I think I made a good play.  I have a good backup with Greg Olsen, who will be getting a lot of passes from rookie Cam Newton in Carolina, so I felt it was worth it so I could get Forte, and really fill out my starting lineup.  I also got the best player in the trade, so that's always a good feeling.