Superbowl

What a tough pill to swallow.  The Superbowl was a great show.  As predicted the under came in, with a lot of room to spare, and the line actually went down to 53 at kickoff.  Unfortunately, the New York Football Giants were crowned champions once again.  Eli Manning led a late 4th quarter drive and ended up scoring with 57 seconds remaining on the clock.  They timed this perfectly, and 57 seconds was just not enough time for Brady & Co. to score. 

Madonna's halftime performance was well-received by the women that I watched the game with, and I honestly did not pay attention to the ads, which were fairly star-studded.  The Giants sacked Brady right at the beginning causing a safety, which is extremely rare, and I am sure hurt the Nevada and offshore sportsbooks, who offer odds in the range of 9 to 1. 

I would have written a lot more if the Patriots won, but I am still feeling kind of sick from the 12 beers and 20 wings I ate last night.  Congrats Giants.

Superbowl...

The Patriots v. Giants Superbowl is just a few days away.  I am extremely excited for the game, and the only concern I have is regarding the health of Rob Gronkowski's ankle.  If that's alright, then I the Giants parade will come to an end. 

Celtics began to pick up some speed, beating the Orlando Magic twice, and sending their season into a tailspin.  Then they were able to win in an upset at home against the Indiana Pacers who are looking strong.  However, #1 pick Kyrie Irving and the Cleveland Caveliers were 11 points behind with 4 minutes to go.  The Celtics were not able to score a single point, and Kyrie scored a basket on a botched pick and roll defense play by Avery Bradley with 2.6 seconds to go, and won the game by 1.  The Celtics play Cleveland again tonight, and hopefully are able to enact some revenge.

I have been drinking some great beer lately as well.  Sierra Nevada's new spring seasonal, the Ruthless Rye IPA is a hit.  I love buying the Sierra Nevada 12 packs, and having a nice hoppy beer available all the time for the bargain price of $1.08/beer.  Another great beer I tried this weekend was Stone Brewing's collaboration with Vermont brewpub-turned-cannery The Alchemist and Ninkasi of the Pacific Northwest.  It is called "More Brown than Black IPA" and is filled to the brim with hops, but the dark malts offset this a little bit, really a great beer all around.

I have been dealing with a virus/flu of some sort that's left me quite congested.  I think that I am coming out on the right side and am going to hit the gym tonight.  Cheers!

Superbowl: Brady & Belichick Try for 4

I got my wish last weekend. Tom Brady and the Patriots eeked out a victory in Foxboro against the Baltimore Ravens and will represent the AFC in Superbowl XLVI. (why don't they just use 46???)  The game came down to a last minute drive by Flacco and the Ravens against Edelman & Co.'s porous defense.  Sterling Moore knocked a ball out of Baltimore WR Lee Evans in the end zone, setting the Ravens up for a tying 32 yard FG attempt for Billy Cundiff.  What should have been a chip shot shanked left and Patriots nation erupted.  Although the result was as desired, the performance gave fans a feeling of unease, but all we have is one more game.

In the evening game, the red-hot NY Giants snatched victory and a berth in Indianapolis with an overtime Lawrence Tynes FG.  Eli played well and the Giants D made life miserable for Alex Smith.  2 special teams gaffes by Kyle Williams may have cost the game for the 49ers.

This sets up a rematch of 2007-2008's Superbowl 42, which haunts me to this day.  I remember watching this game in my college dorm, surrounded by a bunch of roomates who happened to be Giants fans.  The celebration for that rediculous play by Eli & Tyree will forever live in infamy.  Now that I live in Connecticut, I am surrounded by Giants fans, which is annoying to say the least.  I just hope that the favored New England Patriots can take care of business and get that ring.

I mentioned New England is favored, and the line opened at NE -3.5, which I hopped on immediately since its over the key number of 3.  I truly think the Pats win by 3, as seen in their last 3 Superbowl victories.  The one they lost also happened to land on the number 3.  This is no big surprise since 3 is the most common result in football, and probably even higher in close fought NFL Championship and Playoff games.  This means its incredibly important to be on the right side of the number.  I will definitely hedge this bet depending how far the line drops come Feb 5th, I will take NE outright or at -2, but I wanted to lock something up with NYG +3.5.  The over/under is 55.5, and I love the under.  Look at all Patriots Superbowls, and that scary Giants pass rush, means that the totals will be closer to NE v. BAL than NE v DEN.  More analysis coming as the game gets closer.

AFC Conference Championships: Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

I have been missing for quite awhile.  Last post was the day before New Years Eve.  I had a great time visiting with my wife's sister and brother in law.  We spent a great extended weekend in New York City.  Visited New Haven and Boston twice.  We drank a lot of great beers, the new Sierra Nevada Ruthless Rye is excellent.  We took an informal tour at New England Brewing in New Haven, and I picked up 2 four packs of their 668: Neighbor of the Beast.  We also visited Berkshire Brewing in South Deerfield, MA.  The tour was great, the tour guide was funny and informative, and I sampled both the Imperial Stout and their "Goodbye Irene" beer brewed to help support the local community that was ravaged by the early October storm.  Through all this we watched the NBA season get into swing, and my Celtics, are performing far below expectations.  More on that later.  In the NFL, the Patriots have been rolling and with the Saints and Packers eliminated, the two best teams in the NFL are gone from the playoff "tournament."

The AFC conference championship pits the #2 seed Baltimore Ravens in Foxboro against my #1 seed New England Patriots.  The betting line is Patriots -7, which I think is a bit high, considering the Ravens impressive defense, Ray Rice, and the Patriots defense more full of holes than swiss cheese.  I think the line is elevated by the Patriots destruction of Timothy Tebow.  I think the game will be pretty great and I really hope that Tom Brady and the three headed monster of Gronkowski, Hernandez and Welker will be too much for Baltimore to overcome. The game is at 3pm and if things go well for the Pats they will be in Indy in 2 weeks!

The other game is the red hot New York Giants against the impressive San Francisco 49ers.  No one expected this to be the matchup in the NFC, with the Saints and Packers representing probably 80% of football fans #1 most likely Super Bowl victors.  Hoping for a Giants v Patriots Super Bowl rematch, but I think the 49ers will roll and they are favored by 2.5, and I think theres some value on the Niners at home.

11/6/2011 Giants v Patriots

Yesterday was a pretty intense day of football, Miami stunned the red hot Chiefs and halted their 4 game win streak.  Tim Tebow once again made miracles and defeated the Raiders.  The reigning Super Bowl Champ Packers hold off the Chargers who nearly were able to recover from two pick-6s in the first half.  The Sunday Night game came down to the last play, with Flacco connecting to Torrey Smith for a last second TD and a win for the slumping Ravens. 

2008 Super Bowl catch by Tyree

This brings me to my big game of the week, my New England Patriots against the New York Giants.  In a repeat of the traumatic 2008 Super Bowl, the Patriots were nearly double digit point favorites against NY's hometown team.  Injuries to the Giants top RB and WR, Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks respectively, made for a pretty fortunate matchup against the Patriots who had not lost at home in years and were coming of a heartbreaking loss in Pittsburgh.  I did not think the Pats would cover, but I would have wagered at 4:1 that the Patriots would get a W. 

Unfortunately, that was not to be for my Patriots.  The first half was scoreless, ending with Gostowski missing a makeable field goal.  I can understand missing a 40+ footer, but come on bro!  Both defenses were playing pretty well, but everyone knew there would be some scoring in the second half.  The Pats looked good, until the last drive of the game, where Eli connected with a receiver for an insane pass for a big game keeping their hopes alive.  The Pats were up 3 with a 3rd and goal on the 2 yard line and just needed a stop, but a play action pass for the Giants resulted in a short TD and the ultimate win.  Very dissapointing, although a ton of fun and drama for spectators to enjoy!

Week 5 NFL

Week 5 of the NFL is upon us, this is the first week of byes, so there will be fewer games.  My fantasy team is doing fairly well at 3-1 and with a favorable matchup this week (my opponent has several key players on bye/injured) and I hope to improve to 4-1.  I have been doing fairly poor overall in NFL betting, but I still am confident.  I am down a fairly large % of my original bankroll, so I have decided to vary my bet sizes depending on the play.  I will mention some of my key bets this week, and I apologize if lines have moved since I bet them.  See the spreadsheet here.

 Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 1/2

I would probably not have made this pick before the season, but I think its a great matchup for Tennessee.  Pittsburgh is banged up, and Big Ben will probably not play the whole game, and Rashard Mendenhall might not take a snap.  Tennessee has looked great, both offensively and defensively, while Pittsburgh has struggled severely.  I could see Pittsburgh winning, but I think there is value taking the Titans at over a field goal. I probably missed a little value since this opened at 5 and had been bet down to 3 (with reduced juice).  I dont think this will be a shoot out either, and took the under on 40 pts.

Atlanta -6 vs. Green Bay

I obviously can tell that Green Bay has been amazing this year and Atlanta has been lackluster.  However I think theres value here.  Green Bay probably should be favored by a FG, but the recent performance has skewed public perception.  This game is in Atlanta where the Falcons have notoriously been great.  After the near loss to Seattle, I think Atlanta will be looking to make a statement here.  I am worried this will be an extremely high scoring game and I get punished.  This opened at 5, so I am glad I got it at 6 with standard juice.

New York Jets +9.5 @ New England

I hate betting against my high scoring Patriots, and this line may actually be covered.  I hate betting on teams to cover double digits in the NFL, especially teams with pathetic defense like the Pats.  I think the Jets will be up for this game, since they may need to make a statement too.  I think the Pats ultimately take it by a TD.  People are overreacting to the ugly Sunday night game last week.  I am seeing this for +9 at many places, so I got the extra half point value again.

My other plays are Detroit -5.5 v. Chi Bears, SD Chargers -4 v. Denver, Minny -1.5 v Arizona,  Cinci +1.5 Jacksonville.   I also cashed a ticket on the NYY, and hope to double down on Thursday.  I bet the Cal Golden Bears +24 v. Oregon Ducks as well.

Patriots Week 3: Disappointing Loss to the Bills

 

Final 2 minutes were a slow and painful end to the worst Tom Brady game (statswise) in recent memory

Bills covered though