NFL Week 3 Plays

This week there are some decent betting opportunities, but I have also decided to play a couple of unders.  Overs were huge in the first two weeks, and I believe the sportsbooks/market will overcompensate for this and set the line a little high, and I decided to pick a couple games that I think could go under.  I am still a little tight about the MNF game that I added an under 44 pick, because due to a couple freak plays, I ended up pushing, but thats the game.  Lets get into the picks.

Buffalo Bills +9.5 NE Patriots

The Bills have been pretty strong, and although the Patriots have looked incredible, I expect a small recession at some point, this game is in Buffalo as well, so 9.5 seems high.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 NY Giants

I am not a believer in the Giants, especially with Eli playing as he has, and the WRs all dinged up.  I do not know if Michael Vick is playing, but their backup looked pretty good, and they still have a good defense, I kind of like the under in this game, now that I think about it.

NO Saints -4 Houston Texans

I made this play early in the week, but I think I am regretting it, as the Texans are looking hot.  However, I have some faith in the Saints and Brees, and hope they will take this down.  My least favorite bet of the week.

NY Jets -3.5 Oakland Raiders

I think Rex Ryan and the Jets should take care of the Raiders, whose offense is going to struggle against the usually strong Jets defense, I also predict this will be a low scoring affair.

Houston Texans/NO Saints under 53.5

Not a ton of value in this pick, since both teams have strong offense, but I figure the public will be on the over, and I want to be contrarian here.

Miami Dolphins Cleveland Browns over 41

Chad Henne has looked pretty good, and I expect big numbers again in this game.  The number seems too low, but I wont be surprised if this game ends up as a 20-17 win for the Browns.

Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Bucs under 46

I expect Tampa Bay to win this game and it to be fairly close.  I think both teams will run the ball a lot, with Lagarette Blount having a big game.