Red Sox Start the Season...Slowly...

Boston Red Sox nation has a lot to fear in 2012.  What with last year's 2-10 start, and the collapse in September, the horrifying disappointment of $175 million dollars being wasted without even tasting the playoffs.  This year brings a lot of questions, most of them regarding pitching, as our commanding offense is set to be one of the stalwarts of the year.  A new manager, who has not exactly been welcomed into the fold, Bobby Valentine is very different from Terry Francona.

Personally, I am excited and hopeful for the season, and I eagerly awaited the first series against the Detroit Tigers.  However, the series did not go as planned, with 2 heart-breaking losses where save opportunities were blown, both by named closer, Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon. The other game was just a brutal beat down where our co-ace Josh Beckett gave up five homerun balls.

Luckily, we were able to salvage a win Monday night in Toronto against the Blue Jays who many believe are going to have a solid campaign this year.  Our enemies in New York also started 0-3 against division rivals Tampa Bay.  This means 4 solid teams in the American League East, not the best place to call home.

I predict that the offensive firepower will carry the Red Sox to the playoffs and 90 regular season wins.  I like Bobby V so far, and I think he will do just fine.  As long as the pitching situation doesn't completely unravel, the Sox should be OK in 2012.

Bobby Valentine = Boston Red Sox New Manager

I am pretty horrified with how the Red Sox performed this past year.  Francona had gotten even softer, and nobody took him seriously.  I think that with Valentine, the Red Sox will be much improved.  I don't even care if we keep Big Papi, fuck that guy. Fuck Papelbon too.  We have a ton of talent and I am extremely excited for 2012 baseball season.

god damn, this "Rappin Duke" video is hilarious too

Week 5 NFL

Week 5 of the NFL is upon us, this is the first week of byes, so there will be fewer games.  My fantasy team is doing fairly well at 3-1 and with a favorable matchup this week (my opponent has several key players on bye/injured) and I hope to improve to 4-1.  I have been doing fairly poor overall in NFL betting, but I still am confident.  I am down a fairly large % of my original bankroll, so I have decided to vary my bet sizes depending on the play.  I will mention some of my key bets this week, and I apologize if lines have moved since I bet them.  See the spreadsheet here.

 Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 1/2

I would probably not have made this pick before the season, but I think its a great matchup for Tennessee.  Pittsburgh is banged up, and Big Ben will probably not play the whole game, and Rashard Mendenhall might not take a snap.  Tennessee has looked great, both offensively and defensively, while Pittsburgh has struggled severely.  I could see Pittsburgh winning, but I think there is value taking the Titans at over a field goal. I probably missed a little value since this opened at 5 and had been bet down to 3 (with reduced juice).  I dont think this will be a shoot out either, and took the under on 40 pts.

Atlanta -6 vs. Green Bay

I obviously can tell that Green Bay has been amazing this year and Atlanta has been lackluster.  However I think theres value here.  Green Bay probably should be favored by a FG, but the recent performance has skewed public perception.  This game is in Atlanta where the Falcons have notoriously been great.  After the near loss to Seattle, I think Atlanta will be looking to make a statement here.  I am worried this will be an extremely high scoring game and I get punished.  This opened at 5, so I am glad I got it at 6 with standard juice.

New York Jets +9.5 @ New England

I hate betting against my high scoring Patriots, and this line may actually be covered.  I hate betting on teams to cover double digits in the NFL, especially teams with pathetic defense like the Pats.  I think the Jets will be up for this game, since they may need to make a statement too.  I think the Pats ultimately take it by a TD.  People are overreacting to the ugly Sunday night game last week.  I am seeing this for +9 at many places, so I got the extra half point value again.

My other plays are Detroit -5.5 v. Chi Bears, SD Chargers -4 v. Denver, Minny -1.5 v Arizona,  Cinci +1.5 Jacksonville.   I also cashed a ticket on the NYY, and hope to double down on Thursday.  I bet the Cal Golden Bears +24 v. Oregon Ducks as well.

Monday Night Football + Bonus MLB pick

Google Docs Spreadsheet: 2011 NFL Plays

I am down a little overall this season in NFL bets, but I still feel confident in my picking, although this past weekend, I regret my Jets pick, and considered taking the other side, and just paying the juice.  I am somewhat steamed, but I am going to go ahead and take the Washington Redskins tonight at +3.5 (with a little extra juice) rather than +3 at the lower juice, because I truly believe Washington is better than Dallas (with injuries) and a lot of people are going to be playing the chalk on the favorite tonight.

Also, I am a Boston guy, and have obviously been lamenting the Red Sox's September.  I think they will beat the Orioles tonight, and if they don't I assume their season is done.  I am paying a pretty high juice at -185, but I think they win this game 4 out of 5 times.